November 24, 2020
An Increasing Trade Tensions
Kolkata: There is an apparent decoupling between coking coal and steel prices in
the recent past. In fact, they remained at elevated levels, nibbling at the
margins of steelmakers. We expect coking coal supplies from some of the major
exporting nations like Australia, Indonesia, Mozambique, South Africa, and
Canada to increase by over 10 million tonne in CY2019," said Jayanta Roy.
Senior
VP and Group Head - Corporate Sector Ratings, ICRA. However, if what the latest
ICRA report is anything to go by, this apparent decoupling is not likely to
sustain over a longer timeframe. We have seen this happen in CY2018, when
Australian coking coal exports increased year on year by 5 million tonne,
supported by buoyant steel and coking coal prices.. Supported by the high profit
levels of miners, capital spending in expansion projects is expected square head wood screw with turning to
pick-up.
This trend of rising exports from Australia is likely to continue in
CY2019 as well.At prevailing prices, some large global coking coal miners are
achieving Ebitda ranging from $70-100/MT of coal sold which comes close to the
Ebitda levels achieved by some large integrated global steel players. While
steel prices have weakened from the CY 2018 highs, thanks mostly to an
increasing trade tensions and a slower pace of global economic growth, coking
coal prices have not followed suit."A natural corollary of high coal prices is
supply response from miners.
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